by Henry Ojelu
Barring unforeseen circumstances, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola will be returned as governor of Osun State. This is according to the latest survey conducted by TNS-RMS

With just a few days to the Osun State Governorship election, the political atmosphere in the state is clearly charged. The two prominent parties, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and the All Progressive Congress, APC, are already making their last-minute manoeuvres to woo the electorate. While the PDP hopes to add Osun to its laurels of captured states, APC hopes to prove a point that it is still the party to beat, in the South-West, at least.

While many eagerly await the outcome of the election, APC’s chances of winning appear more feasible as one of the world’s most reputable firm, TNS-RMS, has confirmed APC’s domination of the Osun political landscape on all critical indicators. “The APC continues to dominate the political landscape in Osun State judging by its performance on all key indicators evaluated: it scored highest and also increased in rating on first mention, sympathy, and voting intention,” the research firm said in its final report.

According to the study, the incumbent governor, Rauf Aregbesola, is the candidate of choice by Osun voters with a 73 per ent lead over other candidates. This is a clear indication that the choice of Osun voters in the next governorship race is Governor Aregebsola. Senator Iyiola Omisore of the PDP comes a far distant second, polling 19 per cent, representing a 2 per cent decline from the earlier survey.

“The incumbent (Governor Rauf Aregbesola) remains (the) main voting choice. Voting choice for Senator Omisore declined by 2% and seems not to pose a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race,” TSN-RMS said in its report.

Governor Rauf Aregbesola speaking at the rally, to his left his deputy, Titi Tomori Laoye, to right, wife Sherifat, Ibikunle Amosu and others

The two-phased survey was conducted over a period that stretched from June 2014 into the third week of July 2014.
“Not only is APC currently the most preferred party in Osun State, it has largely retained this goodwill from way back in the past. It was the party that most people claimed to have voted for in the last election and it is still the party with the highest chances of winning the election again. More importantly, the gap by which it outperforms opposition continues to widen and more convincing in the current survey,” the report added.

The APC’s top-of-mind and awareness rating increased from 75 per cent to 78 per cent over the two polls, followed by a very far distant PDP with 18 per cent, a drop of 3 per cent from 21 per cent in the first study.

The Labour Party maintains third rank with a negligible 1 per cent. Furthermore, electorate choice for APC is now 70 per cent – boosted by 1 per cent. About 19 per cent say they would vote for the PDP, another 3 per cent drop. Electorate choice for Labour Party remains 1 per cent.

The report goes further to say: “While Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is more known than his party, Senator Iyiola Omisore (PDP’s candidate) is less known than his party. Top-of-mind awareness of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola increased to 85 per cent (from 79 per cent), affinity increased from 72 per cent to 74 per cent and chances of being re-elected increased from 71 per cent to 73 per cent.”

The survey finally noted that confidence level in INEC’s ability to deliver, both as an umpire generally and in the Osun State elections, have drastically reduced, and now tend towards average.