Ebola fears raise the price of cocoa, Brent oil price down

Ebola fears raise the price of cocoa, Brent oil price down

Saturday, September 27, 2014 7:09 am


The price of Cocoa soared to 3.5-year highs this week on fears the Ebola outbreak could reach Ghana and Ivory Cost, the two biggest producers of the commodity used to make chocolate.

Prices of Brent oil, the type Nigeria produces, however tumbled to two-year lows on worries over ample supplies and weak demand, and on the back of the strong dollar.

Commodity markets also digested news that the US economy — a key consumer of raw materials — grew more strongly than thought in the second quarter. Gross domestic product surged at an annual rate of 4.6 percent. That was the fastest since late 2011 and revised from 4.2 percent.

A cocoa tree with fruit pods in various stages of ripening. Photo: Wikipedia

A cocoa tree with fruit pods in various stages of ripening. Photo: Wikipedia

COCOA: Prices rocketed to levels last seen in spring 2011 as traders fretted over the deadly Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, home to most of the world’s production.

Over the past fortnight, cocoa prices jumped by about ten percent as fears escalated that the epidemic could spread to top exporters Ghana and Ivory Coast.

The market rallied Thursday to £2,187 per tonne in London and $3,399 per tonne in New York, the highest points for three and a half years.

Health systems in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have been overwhelmed by the epidemic, which has infected more than 6,200 people in west Africa and killed nearly half of them since late last year.

“Ebola continues to spread and as it approaches the world’s largest production region of Ivory Coast and Ghana worries of disruptions to supplies have increased,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

“October is a critical month for the cocoa market as it signals the beginning of the harvest. Any disruptions in transportation or labour shortages in the world’s two largest producers could have a significant positive impact on the price.”

“As a result of these worries and speculative buyers jumping in, the price reached a 3.5-year high.”

The New York market could potentially beat the previous record high of $3,826 per tonne, set in 2011 when Ivory Coast’s civil war sparked major supply disruptions.

“So far neither the Ivory Coast or Ghana .. have had confirmed cases of Ebola … and both countries have closed their borders with affected countries to try and reduce the threat,” Capital Economics analyst Thomas Pugh told AFP.

OIL: Brent prices dived Wednesday to $95.60 — the lowest level since July 2012 — on worries over abundant crude supplies, poor global economic data and a weaker demand outlook.

“The predominant drivers (of prices) remain ample global supply and a perceived weakening in demand as the world’s largest consumers continue to indicate slowing economic growth,” said Inenco analyst Dorian Lucas.

crude oil: Brent price declines

crude oil: Brent price declines

Losses were capped somewhat by worries over US-led airstrikes against jihadists in the oil-rich Middle East, and after news of a surprisingly heavy drop in US crude inventories.

The Department of Energy said Wednesday that US crude inventories fell 4.3 million barrels in the week ending September 19, confounding forecasts of an increase.

A drop in US stockpiles typically indicates stronger demand in the world’s biggest economy and top crude consumer, and tends to support prices.

The market was also buffeted by rebounding Libyan exports that added to oversupply. Light Libyan crude is valued by refiners in Europe as an alternative to Brent.

By Friday on London’s Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November stood at $96.91 a barrel compared with $97.76 one week earlier.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate or light sweet crude for November gained to $93.16 a barrel, compared with $92.85 for the expired October contract a week earlier.


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