Prince Abubakar Audu

By Dayo Thomas.
This piece is based on a research by the Centre for Election Research and Development. Twenty two candidates are jostling to be governor of Kogi State. Among the 22 candidates there are strong public opinions that tend to divide them into two categories. Category one includes the incumbent Governor, Idris Wada of PDP. There is also Prince Abubakar Audu of APC an experienced politician, who has twice occupied the position. What is going for Audu is his level of democratic dividends while he was governor of the State, Audu seems the most favored to win the election. There is also Dr Philip Salawu of Labour Party (LP) the erstwhile Deputy Governor of Kogi State under Alhaji Ibrahim Idris.

Those in the second category are: Isah Yakubu Kamaldeen,(AA), Dickson F. Fred (Accord), Ukwenya Musa , (ACD), Michael Abdullahi, (AD), Usman Zainab, (ADC), Odufu Cosmos Friday (APA), Akwu Umar Goodman (APGA), Yinka Cherry Oloruntoba (CPP), Philips Ezekiel Koleola (DPC), Abubakar Ibrahim Adejoh (ID).

Others include Raji Ogorima (KOWA), Mohammed Ibrahim Dangana (NCP), Mallam Abdul Hussein (NNPP), Emmanuel Daikwo (PDC), Emmanuel Enesi Paul (SDP) and Sa’a Mukailu Yaro (UDP).

Gov Wada

There are eight (8) factors that will decide the final outcome of this election.
· The strength and the spread of the party. Under this category, APC is highly favored; PDP is second, followed by the LP and PPA. The general election that ushered in President Mohammedu Buhari has given the APC prominence and popularity that make it the number one party in Nigeria. The strength of APC as a party has made Prince Abubakar Audu the most favored among the entire candidates. It is obvious from the way and manner many politicians are defecting to the party not because of AUDU but the PARTY. In the last few days, over 1,000 notable politicians have defected to APC. Some of them are:
· Alhaji Isa Jibrin Echocho
· Alhaji Mohammed Ali and 14 other council Chairmen
· Hon Albert Soje- Former Majority Leader
· Prof Olu Akerejola, Former D.G ITF, Jos
· Several cabinet/House of Assembly members on the PDP-led government of Alhaji Ibrahim Idris
· Hon Duro Meseko, Senior Aide to Gov Wada
· All the elected Chairmen under Ibrahim Idris
· Several board members of commissions in the present and immediate past government
· Chief Leke Abejide, a business mogul and former Stalwart of the PDP.
· Chief Toyin Akanle, SDP senator flag –bearer.
· Chief John Odawn, State PDP Chairman
· Alhaji Linco Ocheje, State NCE Chairman PDP (East)
· Senator Nurudeen Abatemi
· Senator Nicholas Ugbene
· Mohammed Ibrahim Idris, Son of the former Governor , Alhaji Ibrahim Idris
· Hon Allah Dey
· Barrister Shaba Ibrahim
· Hajia Halimat Alfa, Former National Leader PDP, Board member Sure-P
· Hon Tom Zakari, Fmr House Rep member (Dekina/ Bassa)
· Hon Dayo Akanmode
· Hon Fehindi Dada, former aide to Senator Smart Adeyemi
· Hon Sam Aro
· Hon Abiodun Ojo

It has been established that a sizeable number of political appointees in the present government are working for the success of the APC candidate, Prince Abubakar Audu.

However, one of the governorship aspirants who contested in the APC primary, Alhaji Yahaya Bello (Fairplus) is working for the success of the incumbent Governor, Capt Idris Wada.

He is the conduit pipe used to transmit funds to some PDP foot soldiers. Nonetheless, his influence is likely to be watered down by that of Senator Mohammed Ohiare , who enjoys wider acceptability in the Central Senatorial district.

· Second factor that will decide the outcome of the election is the personality and character of the candidates. There seems to be dearth of adequate information on the personal achievements of other candidates. Audu, Wada and Salawu have enjoyed more prominence in the media but Audu and Wada have an edge. Though Audu has personal career achievements before venturing into politics, Wada is more favored in terms of character.

· The third factor is antecedents/achievements. In this category there is no one out of the 22 candidates that can be compared to Audu, he is the best Governor in the history of kogi State while Wada was recently declared the worst governor.

· The fourth factor that will decide the election is team work. It is obvious from the number of people that defect from the PDP to APC that Wada does not enjoy the advantage of a strong team. Audu at the moment parades solid team in the three Senatorial districts.

· The other factor that will to a greater extent determine the outcome of the election is money. Anywhere in the world, money plays an important role in campaign and logistics. Among the 22 candidates, Audu and Wada seem to have enjoyed access to huge amount of money in their campaign.

In the finally analysis, the opinion poll conduct by international center for election research and development shows that Audu will win and will be followed by Idris Wada; Philip Salawu will be the third, followed by Enesi of PPA