Saturday, November 5, 2016 7:45 pm
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a narrow four-point edge over Republican Donald Trump in spite of a tightening race heading into the final weekend of a campaign.
Likely voters currently break 47 per cent for Clinton and 43 per cent for Trump with three in 10 likely voters saying they had already cast their ballots, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.
Clinton’s lead, however, is still within the range of sampling error and similar to Clinton’s 47-44 margin in the previous four-day wave but the largest numerical gap between candidates in the past week of daily tracking.
Similarly, Clinton continues to show weaknesses in the closing days as she trails Trump by five points on the question of which candidate is more honest and trustworthy, and she no longer holds a significant lead among those who have already voted nationwide.
Among those who have not voted yet, Trump supporters are more likely to say they are following the contest “very closely,” suggesting they may turn out at higher rates.
Clinton benefits from big advantages with many of the groups that fueled Obama’s two elections.
African American likely voters support Clinton by 86 to six per cent over Trump, behind Obama’s 93 to six margin in the 2012 exit poll.
Latinos favour Clinton by 71 to 23 per cent, similar to a 67-19 per cent margin in Washington Post-Univision News Poll of Latino voters whereas Obama had 71 to 27 margin in 2012.
While the overall gender gap in Clinton’s and Trump’s support is similar to past elections, the divide is particularly stark among younger voters in the latest poll.
Among likely female voters younger than 40, Clinton leads by 59 to 31 per cent over Trump, compared with a 41 to 38 per cent split among younger men.
This is one area where Clinton may stand on the better end in terms of turnout, as younger women have historically turned out at higher rates than their male counterparts.
Partisans continue to support their party’s nominees at similar levels, with 88 per cent of Democrats supporting Clinton and 85 per cent of Republicans supporting Trump.
Both of those figures are slightly lower than in previous years, in part because of the presence of third-party candidates holding significant support as candidates generally exceed 90 per cent support among fellow partisans.
Independents favour Trump by 45 to 39 per cent.
Both Clinton and Trump receive support from more than eight in 10 independents who say they lean toward their one party, while those who lean toward neither party favour Trump by 43 to 34 per cent.
Clinton holds only a narrow edge over Trump in support among early voters with 49 to 44 percent, similar to her edge among likely voters but smaller than the 54 to 41 advantage in the previous poll.
While the attitudes of early voters who have already cast ballots cannot change over time, the rapidly growing size of this group can cause shifts in preferences that polls can estimate only roughly.
With turnout of chief importance in the closing days, Clinton supporters who have not yet voted are somewhat less likely to report following the race closely.
The poll finds 73 per cent of Trump supporters who plan to vote in the coming days say they are following the race “very closely,” compared with 64 per cent of Clinton supporters.
Voters also say Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Clinton by 44 to 39 per cent, narrowing slightly from Trump’s eight-point edge last weekend.
Clinton trails on the question of honesty and trustworthy due to weaker faith in her honesty among Democrats than Trump has among Republicans.
Independents also say by 18 points that Trump is more trustworthy than Clinton with 20 per cent of independents and 12 per cent of Democrats say “neither” candidate is honest.
NAN reports that the U.S. presidential election of 2016, scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016, would be the 58th four-year period U.S. presidential election.
The leading presidential candidates are Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Hillary Clinton, while Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein have been less visible.
The winner of the election would determine the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the U.S., who would be inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2017. (NAN)